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Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."